Analysis of the burden of vertebral column fracture in china from 1990 to 2021 and trend forecast to 2035

English Keywords:Vertebral column fracture  Global Burden of Disease database  Visualized analysis

English Abstract:

  【Abstract】 Objectives: To provide a new perspective on the epidemiological characteristics of vertebral column fracture in China and to guide the formulation of targeted public health strategies. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease 2021 database was utilized to analyze the epidemiological trends of vertebral column fracture in China from 1990 to 2021. The study further explored the disease burden characteristics related to age, sex, and etiology. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percent change(AAPC) to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized rates. The Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC) model was used to forecast the age-standardized rates for 2035. Results: In 2021, the incidence and prevalence of vertebral column fracture in China were 1194465[95% uncertainty interval(UI): 888994-1594120] and 717078(95%UI: 619114-835347), respectively, representing increases of 52.28% and 113.66% compared to 1990. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) in China showed no significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 0.45%[95% confidence interval(CI): -0.29% to 1.20%, P>0.05], while the age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR) showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 0.53%(95%CI: 0.24% to 0.83%, P<0.05). The BAPC prediction results for 2022-2035 indicated a downward trend for both ASIR and ASPR. Analysis by age group revealed that the peak age groups for incidence and prevalence have increased, with the crude incidence rate(CIR) and crude prevalence rate(CPR) increasing with age, reflecting an aging trend. Gender analysis found that the disease burden was more prominent among middle-aged men and elderly women. Etiological analysis revealed that falls were the leading cause of spinal fractures in China, followed by road injuries. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of spinal fractures in China has significantly increased and shown an aging trend. Although the predicted disease burden for 2035 is expected to decline, it is still necessary to remain vigilant. Middle-aged men and elderly women are the key populations of concern, and emphasis should be placed on preventing falls and road injuries.